8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Apr 2004

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/06/2004

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Main Features
About this Release

APRIL KEY FIGURES

		Apr 04	Mar 04 to Apr 04
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	15,898.9	0.2
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	15,900.0	0.0

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change

APRIL KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

Growth in the monthly trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series continued to soften with a 0.2% increase in April 2004. This follows increases of 0.3% in March and February 2004.
The trend estimate increased in all states and territories except the Australian Capital Territory which was flat. The largest rate of increase was in Western Australia (0.6%).
The growth in the trend estimate during April 2004 was predominantly driven by an increase in Food retailing (+$38m or 0.6%). Other retailing recorded an offsetting fall (-$11m or -0.7%).
Over the three months to April 2004 the trend estimate rose by $140m. Food retailing (+$117m), Hospitality and services (+$25m) and Department stores (+$18m) had the largest increases, while Other retailing (-$30m) had the largest fall.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series fell marginally (-$3m) in April 2004 compared with March 2004. This small fall follows three months of growth since the start of the year.
Victoria (-$35m) and the Australian Capital Territory (-$1m) recorded falls, with the other states and the Northern Territory recording partially offsetting increases. Western Australia recorded the largest rise (+$23m).

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover rose by 0.2% in April 2004 compared with March 2004. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) rose by 1.4%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) fell by 1.3%.
Australian turnover increased by 8.9% in April 2004 compared with April 2003. Chains and other large retailers increased by 7.0%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 11.4%.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for April 2004 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	15,432.7	140.8
Change from preceding month ($m)	28.5	77.3
% change from preceding month (%)	0.2	0.5

Estimates for sampled businesses in the first month of each quarter can be influenced by the quarterly rotation of sampled businesses. This rotation is done to spread the reporting load across retailers and to ensure the sample remains representative of the population. At times, the businesses rotated into the sample can perform differently from the businesses they replace or those already in the sample. The potential impact of the quarterly rotation is reflected in the sampling errors for the relevant months.

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 30-34.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

SUMMARY COMMENTARY

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

The Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services trend series had a small rise during April 2004. This was mostly driven by moderate growth in Food retailing and Department stores, while all other industries had weak growth or were in decline.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth for the last 15 months. Victoria has had strong trend growth since December 2003, while the rate of growth for Queensland has been slowing since October 2003. In April 2004, New South Wales, South Australia, Western Australia and Northern Territory had moderate growth, the Australian Capital Territory had weak growth and Tasmania had no growth.

DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been moderate trend growth for the last five months. During April 2004, all states had moderate trend growth in Department stores retailing. The Australian Capital Territory had weak growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been weak growth in the trend estimate over the last four months. New South Wales continued its contraction with a 0.8% fall in the trend during April 2004. Queensland also had a small fall, while the Northern Territory had strong growth. The other states and the Australian Capital Territory had flat or weak growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing & soft good ret

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

The rate of growth in the trend estimate has been declining since June 2003, with flat growth in April 2004. Moderate falls in the trend in New South Wales, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory over the last three months were offset by the growth in the other states and the Northern Territory. In this period the rate of growth has only increased in Queensland.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

There were small falls in the trend estimate in each of the four months to April 2004. Over this period, growth in Victoria, South Australia and the Northern Territory was offset by continuing falls in New South Wales, Queensland, and the Australian Capital Territory. Tasmania was flat during March and April 2004.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

The trend estimate continued to fall at a moderate rate in April 2004. New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia had strong falls in April 2004. Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory had moderate growth, although the rate of growth has been decreasing over recent months.

TOTAL RETAIL (excluding Hospitality and Services)

The rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been the same as that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services) for the last five months.

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality & services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

This industry has had weak to moderate trend growth in the last five months. In April 2004, strong growth in New South Wales and Tasmania was partially offset by declines in Queensland and Victoria. Western Australia and South Australia continued moderate growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality & services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

April 2004 was the fifth consecutive month of weak trend growth. Moderate growth in Food retailing and Department stores and continuing strong growth in Hospitality and services was partially offset by moderate to strong falls in other industries.

VICTORIA

Trend growth weakened slightly in April 2004 but continued the moderate to strong growth of the past 16 months. Growth in Food retailing, while slowing in comparison to the preceding three months, remained strong. Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Department stores had moderate growth in April 2004.

QUEENSLAND

The rate of growth in the trend for Queensland continued to weaken from its peak in August 2003. Household good retailing strengthened during April 2004, while Department stores continued its moderate growth and Hospitality and services was in decline. The other industries had weak growth or small falls.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The rate of trend growth has weakened in the last five months. In April 2004, Recreational good retailing continued its strong growth, while Other retailing continued to be in decline. Food retailing, Department stores, Household good retailing and Hospitality and services had moderate growth.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

There has been moderate trend growth for the last five months. In April 2004, Recreational good retailing had a slight fall, Clothing and soft good retailing had weak growth, while all other industries had moderate growth.

TASMANIA

The trend growth has been weak for the last five months. In April 2004, Hospitality and services grew strongly, while Food retailing, Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing were flat. Household good retailing was in decline.